"With coal gone, oil gone, high-grade metallic ores gone, no species however competent can make the long climb from primitive conditions to high-level technology. This is a one-shot affair. If we fail, this planetary system fails so far as intelligence is concerned."
Astrophysicist Fred Hoyle (1964)

Hoyle’s quote above seems desperately pessimistic. I think he was partly right, in that this spectacular phase in human development is one that we can only have once. But in this article, I want to go a step further and suggest that it is simply a normal and unavoidable stage of many, towards eventual maturity.

I’ll argue that the growth of industrial civilisation so far is much like the growth of weeds in a plot of bare earth. Although this period of rapid growth and vigorous competition feels normal to us, it is merely a short phase of development that is leading inexorably towards a much longer phase which will be slower and less exuberant, but also more co-operative, interconnected, and sustainable.

Ecological Succession

A landslide destroys a section of forest, reducing it to bare earth. Within days, weedy undergrowth sprouts and spreads rapidly. These weed plants are adapted to using up resources fast. They have no need to co-operate because the resources are so plentiful, so they simply spread and grow until all the easily available resources are used up.

Once all the readily available resources have been tied up, slower-growing species take root and begin a series of transformations from the fast-growing, competitive stage towards the slower magnificence of a “climax” forest, rich with symbiosis and co-operative relationships.
This process is known as “ecological succession” and is a well established dynamic in ecological systems. But perhaps this concept can usefully be applied to the growth and development of homo sapiens on planet Earth.

We weeds

When humanity discovered fire, we were suddenly able to transform inedible food resources into valuable nutrients.

Similarly, when humanity learned to access a nearly-free energy source in the form of fossil fuels, the world’s resources were unlocked -- fossil-fuelled machines were now able to rapidly extract and process minerals, and rapidly transform the landscape to pave the way for the production of more human protoplasm.

This discovery was analogous to exposing a vast section of rich soil, now available for the weed species to take over. The story of the human race since then has been that of the first set of stages or “seres” of ecological succession; the weeds.

Grow or die

Weeds are adapted to grow incredibly quickly. They can and must reproduce and spread like lightning, for one simple reason. If a particular plant doesn’t rapidly exploit the available space, some other plant will -- and crowd out slower competitors.

This dynamic has forced humans to rapidly exploit the resources made available by the fossil energy revolution. Therefore, we have seen a period typified by extremely fierce competition. It could be no other way. If an organisation or person tried to behave “sustainably”, they would quickly be out-competed, crowded out, and eventually consumed.

Our monetary system switched to a fully debt-based system in the mid-20th century. Because money is issued as debt, the money supply can expand quickly, permitting unfettered economic growth. The flip side of the coin is that the money supply must expand continuously, forcing growth. If growth stops, debts go unpaid and bankruptcies mount.

Forced to compete and grow or wither and die, we have grown exponentially, taking us rapidly to the limits of growth.

The beginning contains the end

As weeds absorb plant nutrients such as minerals, they become bound into biological molecules and structures that are more difficult for future generations of that specie to use. Thus, the phase of rapid growth and expansion contains within it the seeds for its own end.

Similarly, as humans extract metals, energy and other minerals, manufacture stuff, and finally dump and disperse it, we make it difficult for future humans to get access to the resources necessary for a technological society.

It’s already clear that his current phase of human development is approaching natural limits; limits that have arisen out of our own pattern of growth. Oil has peaked, coal is approaching peak, soil fertility is falling, pollution is rising, the monetary system is failing... the list is long.

But when the weedy seres of an ecological system finish, it does not return to bare earth. Instead, a new sere grows from the old; a new community that is suited to the environment left behind by the previous one.

Pioneer Trees

While the weed era raged, it was impossible for “sustainable” systems to flourish as they were easily out-competed. But as the first few weedy seres lose their vigour, opportunities arise for slower-growing species, suited to the new environment, to take root. “Pioneer trees” soon shade out the weedy undergrowth.

Perhaps as the old economic systems begin to falter, there will be new opportunities for organisations and movements to lead the way towards new ways of making a living. Perhaps the seeds for human “pioneer trees” already lie dormant. Perhaps they are even sending up their first tender shoots, in the form of organic farms, intentional communities, alternative currencies, the open source movement, and a myriad of others.

Climax

![ ](http://i66.tinypic.com/205tkr8.jpg)

Each sere eventually sets up the conditions for its own demise, leading finally to the “climax” sere. The climax sere is instead able to create conditions that foster its own continuation, and thus may last many hundreds of years. The Australian rainforest is one such example of a climax.

If human civilisation follows the same pattern of development, what might the human analogue of a climax forest be? The early seres of a succession bear no resemblance to the climax, so we would not expect it to be much like early human patterns such as hunter-gatherer or feudal societies. Instead, it may be something entirely new.

A rainforest is full of complex food chains, symbiosis, and uncountable patterns of co-operation and interdependency that together form a resilient equilibrium. It uses resources efficiently, produces exactly as much biomass as it consumes, and yet grows on soil that is technically very poor.

There is no reason to suppose that a human equivalent might not be at least as complex as the society we have today. It might even feature advanced technology, although without the profligate use of energy and resources that we associate with technology today.

Our climax sere is probably centuries off, but I find it comforting to imagine that this difficult era of war and mindless growth is just a normal phase as we move towards an inevitable, magnificent future.

And the next phase is about to begin.

Further reading
The Ecotechnic Future, John Michael Greer
http://www.newsociety.com/Books/E/The-Ecotechnic-Future